THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT IN A SNIT

FromThe Carpet Bagger Report

Dobson tells Hannity he’s ready to bolt the

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Focus on the Family’s James Dobson, whose 2008 plans are suddenly very important to the Republican establishment, was on Fox News last night, giving Sean Hannity a chance to beg him to stay within the GOP fold, even if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee.

Dobson wasn’t persuaded. (via Hot Air)

I haven’t been able to track down a full transcript, but towards the end, Hannity suggested Hillary Clinton would be worse than Rudy Giuliani, so Dobson should go with the lesser of the two. Dobson concluded, “If Rudy Giuliani wins, I’m telling you, the pro-life and pro-family movement is over. It is gone. If it’s Hillary, as bad as she is, there will be a mobilization to fight what she’s trying to do. If he is put in office by conservatives, and those who are pro-life and pro-marriage and pro-family, I’m afraid we will not recover from it.”

And that’s really the point of this ongoing story. I’ve seen several prominent progressive voices argue that there’s no way Dobson would leave the GOP, making all of the recent bluster an elaborate bluff.

It’s really not. Dobson has a movement to protect, and a Giuliani nomination would destroy it.

Matt Yglesias argued yesterday:

I seem to be the only liberal who thinks that James Dobson et. al. will probably follow through on their threat to sink Rudy Giuliani if he becomes the Republican nominee, but now we have Richard Viguerie chiming in with a similar threat. I think this business is real. If Giuliani wins the White House, the pro-life lobby will wind up looking like a paper tiger and nobody will pay them any mind in the future. The mere fact of a Democrat in the White House doesn’t threaten their power nearly as much as a pro-choice Republican would.

Matt, you’re not alone on this one. To reiterate a point I argued last week, the religious right has been coasting for over a decade, having convinced the Republican establishment that without theocratic activists, the party has no foot soldiers.

It’s been a bit of shell game that no one in the party wants to push too far. If Dobson and his allies do break ranks, it actually puts their credibility on the line in a way that’s never happened — if Giuliani can win the GOP nomination and (gasp) the presidency without so much as a hint of support from the religious right, no one will take the movement seriously again.

These religious right leaders are making bold threats, but they really don’t have any choice. Dobson & Co., not to mention their loyal followers, believe they have enormous influence in Republican circles, and can dictate the party’s direction. If the Republicans nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control, thrice-married serial adulterer who wants to invest in stem-cell research, the religious right’s masquerade will be over. It will be obvious that the movement is practically powerless in the party, and the groups’ benefactors will have far less reason to keep writing the checks that keeps the movement afloat.

Dobson’s fear of Hillary pales in comparison to his self-preservation instincts.